By Larry Miller | SACOBSERVER.COM WIRE SERVICES

(NNPA) - t’s too early to sound the death knell of the Obama administration and the Democratic Party despite the election of Sen. Scott Brown, a conservative Republican, to replace Sen. Edward Kennedy, a stalwart Democrat, agreed a collection of Democratic lawmakers and political observers.

“The presidency in modern history is not determined by the first year,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and a political historian. There is little doubt that President Barack Obama has had a rough first year.

His job approval ratings — hovering at 50 percent — are at record lows. But other presidents have endured similarly bruising first years and gone on to second terms, Madonna said, pointing to the first years of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
John F. Kennedy, too, had a bad first year but likely would have been elected to a second term if he had not been assassinated.

The most recent sign of trouble for Obama was Brown’s election on Tuesday to the Massachusetts seat that has been Democratic for 50 years.

Brown’s election stunned the nation and sent political shockwaves through Washington, D.C. His win gives Republicans 41 votes in the Senate, effectively ending the Democrats’ ability to override filibusters and force through their legislation.

It also raised red flags for Democrats as the nation prepares for the first mid-term election of Obama’s presidency.

Republicans immediately began crowing, predicting disaster.

“There is a potential tidal wave building that could shatter the Democratic Party for generations,” said Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House and now an author and political activist, in an e-mail blast sent on Thursday to reporters across the nation.

Even traditional supporters of the Democratic Party have expressed their frustrations.

“The reason Ted Kennedy’s seat is no longer controlled by a Democrat is clear: Washington’s inability to deliver the change voters demanded in November 2008,” said Andy Stern, president of Service Employees International Union. “During the past year, Republicans refused to do anything but stand in the way of change and Democrats took too long to do too little.”

Democrats, shaken, tried to regroup.

Party leaders convened a series of meetings on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday and seemed to emerge chastened. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Thursday that the House lacked the votes to push through health-care legislation.
"In its present form, without any changes, I don't think it’s possible to pass the Senate bill in the House. I don’t see the votes for it at this time,” she said.

Promises of health-care reform were central to Obama’s campaign. During his first year, however, reform efforts have been bogged down in Congress. Critics on the right charge that bills in both houses veer toward socialism. Critics on the left allege that reforms don’t go far enough. In the final analysis, few are happy with the reform measures as drafted.

Obama, in an interview with ABC News, suggested that the Senate wait until Brown was seated vote on its health-care reform legislation and acknowledged the general frustration voters have toward Washington.

“People are angry and they are frustrated. Not just because of what’s happened in the last year or two years, but what’s happened over the last eight years,” he said, going on to take some blame for the public’s sour mood.

“I think we lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people about what their core values are and why we have to make sure those institutions are matching up with those values,” he said. “I do think it is a mistake of mine.”

Madonna said Brown’s election would likely serve to focus Democrats. Regardless, he predicted they would lose seats in the mid-term election.

Local Democratic lawmakers said they remained committed to health-care reform and other items on Obama’s agenda.

“We have two bills that are substantively the same and address the president’s reform priorities,” said U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah, on health care. “We need to take what we have, make it happen and work to remedy the many other challenges facing the American public including unemployment and reducing the deficit.”

U.S. Rep. Bob Brady admitted Brown’s election has changed the landscape in the capitol.

“Our goal is to secure comprehensive health-care insurance reform, but how to get there remains a question,” he said.

Still, he was sure it would get done.

“I remain confident that we will pass a bill that provides more stability for people with insurance, affordable coverage options for those without insurance and lower costs for families, the business sector and governments,” Brady said.

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey echoed his congressional colleagues.

“The message from the American people is that they want those of us who represent them to concentrate on the challenges that Americans are facing in the wake of this horrific recession,” he said. “Create jobs and improve the economy.”

Health-care reform is part of those improvements, he said.

“A significant component of strengthening our economy is health-care reform,” Casey said. “We need to keep moving forward to implement legislation to crack down on insurance companies, cover 31 million Americans with no health insurance and reduce the deficit.”

The final impact rests on Obama and the Democrats, Madonna said.

“Could he be doomed? Of course, but no one knows what he will do,” he said of the president. “Will he move to the center? Will he stop being so deferential to Congress?”
As for Democrats in Congress: “It depends on the strategy that comes out of these meetings,” he said.

This story comes special to NNPA from the Philadelphia Tribune.